Volume 3, Issue 1 (1-2017)                   FAER 2017, 3(1): 1-17 | Back to browse issues page

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Syasar H, Honar T, Nikoo M R, Zandparsa S. Long-term trend forecasting and modeling of temporal patterns of Zabol and its impact on potential evapotranspiration . FAER. 2017; 3 (1) :1-17
URL: http://europeansp.org/article-13-110-en.html
Ph.D. student in Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University
Abstract:   (109 Views)
Climate change is one of the current problems of human societies and is considered a threat. Investigating and predicting the elements of this is of great importance both in terms of crisis management and planning of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to study climatic elements to take the right actions in water resources management and prevent losses. To forecast the temperature of Zabol synoptic station and its effects on evapotranspiration, the maximum, minimum temperatures, mean of relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, and evaporation pan of Zabol synoptic station since 1394 were obtained and used. Stability and normality of the data were tested by Q-Q graphs and partial autocorrelation functions. Using a suitable differencing, data were normalized and stable. Then, minimum and maximum time series and average temperature in Zabol stations were forecasted and through autocorrelation and partial auto relation function, the accuracy of the model was ensured. In addition, this model was validated by actual data for years 2014 and 2015 and was approved. The model (1,1,1) (3,1,3) was detected to predict temperature in Zabol station. The effect of temperature changes on the calculation of potential evapotranspiration of Zabol station has been investigated using FAO-Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani method. The results showed that in the next five years, the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature will increase. This increase will be as big as 0.01mm in December when there is the lowest evapotranspiration. In January and October, the potential evapotranspiration will increase 0.8 and 0.72 mm, respectively, which will severely affect water consumption in different parts.
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Received: 2019/08/8 | Accepted: 2019/08/8 | Published: 2019/08/8

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